2025-11-17 09:00

I remember sitting in Gainbridge Fieldhouse last season watching Tyrese Haliburton slice through the Milwaukee defense, thinking to myself—this feels different. As someone who’s followed the Pacers since the Reggie Miller era, I’ve seen plenty of promising teams fall short. But this current squad? They’ve got that special blend of youth, chemistry, and emerging star power that makes you believe something historic could be brewing. The question isn’t whether they’re good—we know they are—but whether they can actually break through the Eastern Conference gauntlet and reach the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history.

Let’s start with what makes this team uniquely positioned for a deep playoff run. The offensive system coach Rick Carlisle has implemented is nothing short of brilliant. Indiana led the league in offensive rating at 118.7 points per 100 possessions last season, and they’ve maintained that explosive output this year despite increased defensive attention. What makes them so dangerous isn’t just their pace—though they do play at the second-fastest tempo in the league—but their incredible ball movement and spacing. Haliburton has developed into a true floor general, averaging 11.2 assists per game while committing just 2.3 turnovers. That assist-to-turnover ratio is elite, and it’s the engine that drives their entire offensive scheme. When you combine his playmaking with the scoring punch of Pascal Siakam, who’s been averaging 22.8 points on 57% true shooting since joining the team, you have a legitimate two-way threat that can punish defenses in multiple ways.

What often gets overlooked in discussions about the Pacers is their defensive improvement. Yes, they still rank in the bottom half defensively—they’re currently 17th in defensive rating—but they’ve shown significant growth in key areas. Myles Turner has developed into one of the league’s most underrated rim protectors, averaging 2.1 blocks per game while maintaining the mobility to switch onto smaller players. Andrew Nembhard has become a legitimate perimeter stopper, capable of making life difficult for opposing guards. The acquisition of Siakam gave them another versatile defender who can guard multiple positions. Are they the Celtics or Timberwolves defensively? No, but they’ve improved enough to where their defense isn’t automatically canceling out their offensive excellence.

The Eastern Conference landscape presents both opportunities and challenges. Milwaukee’s defensive issues, Miami’s inconsistent regular season, and Philadelphia’s health concerns have created openings. But let’s be real—Boston remains the mountain they’ll eventually need to climb. The Celtics have been dominant this season, posting a net rating of +9.8 that dwarfs every other team in the conference. Their combination of shooting, defense, and experience makes them the clear favorites. For Indiana to reach the Finals, they’d likely need to beat Boston in a seven-game series, which would require Haliburton to outperform Jayson Tatum and for their role players to shoot lights out from three. It’s not impossible—we’ve seen crazier things happen in the playoffs—but it would represent one of the bigger upsets in recent conference finals history.

Where I think the Pacers have a genuine advantage is in their depth and continuity. While other teams load up on stars, Indiana has built a roster where their 8th or 9th man could start for many playoff teams. T.J. McConnell continues to be one of the most effective backup guards in the league, providing energy and playmaking that often swings games in the second quarter. Obi Toppin has found his rhythm as an athletic finisher and floor-spacer. Aaron Nesmith has developed into a reliable 3-and-D wing. This depth allows them to maintain their aggressive style for 48 minutes, wearing teams down over the course of a series. In a potential seven-game series against an older team like Milwaukee or Philadelphia, that could be the difference.

The biggest question mark, in my view, is playoff experience. While Siakam brings championship pedigree from his Toronto days, many of their key players—including Haliburton—have limited postseason exposure. Playoff basketball is different. The game slows down, defenses become more physical, and referees tend to swallow their whistles. How will Indiana’s free-flowing offense adapt when teams are specifically game-planning to take away their strengths in a series? We’ve seen regular season darlings struggle when the playoffs arrive, and while I believe Carlisle’ coaching will help, there’s no substitute for actually going through those battles.

Looking at their path realistically, I’d put their chances of reaching the Finals this season at around 25%. They’re clearly in that second tier of Eastern Conference teams behind Boston, but ahead of the play-in level squads. What gives me hope is their continued growth throughout the season. Haliburton has shown he can elevate his game in big moments—remember his 27-point, 15-assist performance against the Celtics in the In-Season Tournament? Siakam provides them with a proven secondary scorer who doesn’t need the offense run through him to be effective. The pieces fit in a way that suggests this isn’t just a flash in the pan.

Ultimately, whether they break through this year or need another season to develop, what’s clear is that the Pacers have built something special. The days of being a middling franchise stuck in mediocrity appear to be over. With Haliburton just entering his prime and a supporting cast that complements his skills perfectly, Indiana basketball is relevant again in a way it hasn’t been since the Paul George era. The Finals might still be a year away, but for the first time in decades, it feels like a realistic goal rather than a pipe dream. And as someone who’s waited through many rebuilding seasons, I can tell you—that alone makes this era exciting to watch.