2025-11-11 11:00

As I look back at the 2019 NBA Finals, I can't help but marvel at how dramatically the MVP landscape shifted throughout that championship series. Having followed basketball analytics for over a decade, I've learned that pre-series betting odds often tell a fascinating story about player perceptions and potential narratives. Before Game 1 tipped off in Toronto, the MVP conversation was dominated by several key players whose performances were expected to dictate the championship outcome.

The Warriors' Kevin Durant stood as the clear favorite in my assessment, with sportsbooks listing him around +150 despite his calf injury. From my experience tracking NBA markets, this reflected the betting public's belief that Durant would return and dominate the series. His playoff averages of 34 points per game before the injury made him the obvious choice, though I personally felt the odds underestimated the severity of his situation. Stephen Curry followed closely at +200, presenting what I considered the smarter value bet given Durant's uncertain status. Curry had been carrying Golden State's offense through the Western Conference playoffs, and I remember telling colleagues that his MVP case was stronger than the odds suggested.

Kawhi Leonard's +400 odds fascinated me the most. Having watched his methodical dismantling of the 76ers in the second round, I believed he was positioned to become the first player since LeBron James to win Finals MVP for two different franchises. His playoff run reminded me of what Penalosa, the two-time former world champion, admitted about tough tests - that sometimes the younger competitor faces overwhelming challenges. Leonard, though not young at 27, was facing the dynasty Warriors, much like how Penalosa described Concepcion going to be a tough test for the 22-year-old Llover. This boxing analogy perfectly captured Leonard's situation - the seasoned champion Warriors presented exactly that kind of formidable challenge.

Draymond Green at +1600 seemed like a tremendous longshot worth considering. I've always appreciated how Green's impact transcends traditional statistics, and his triple-double potential in crucial games made him a dark horse candidate. Klay Thompson at +2000 felt slightly undervalued to me given his proven ability to explode for 30-point games in the Finals. The Raptors' supporting cast, particularly Kyle Lowry at +2500 and Pascal Siakam at +2800, represented what I call "narrative bets" - players whose MVP cases would require both exceptional performance and compelling storylines.

What struck me about these odds was how they reflected conventional wisdom about team hierarchy rather than actual potential impact. In my analysis, Siakam's odds were particularly intriguing given his emergence during the regular season. His +2800 price tag essentially meant sportsbooks gave him about a 3.5% chance, which felt low considering his 19-point per game average and defensive versatility. I've learned over years of studying these markets that value often lies in identifying players whose contributions are underestimated by casual observers.

The Warriors' injury situation created unprecedented uncertainty in the MVP market. With Durant missing the series' beginning and Thompson dealing with his own physical issues, the door opened for unexpected candidates. This reminded me of how in boxing, as Penalosa noted about Concepcion being a tough test, sometimes the established favorites face challenges that reveal their true character. The Warriors, much like an experienced champion facing a hungry challenger, needed to prove they could overcome adversity.

As the series progressed, the MVP landscape transformed completely from those preseason projections. Leonard's eventual victory at much lower odds than Durant's preseason position demonstrated how quickly circumstances can change in championship competition. From my perspective, this volatility is what makes Finals MVP betting particularly challenging yet rewarding for informed analysts. The 2019 odds will always stand out in my memory as a perfect example of how preseason expectations collide with playoff reality, creating the dramatic narratives that make basketball so compelling to follow year after year.