2025-11-17 12:00

Tonight’s Game 5 between SMB and Magnolia isn’t just another playoff matchup—it’s a tipping point. As someone who’s followed the PBA for years, I’ve seen teams rally from the brink, and Magnolia has that look right now. They’re down, but not out, and with the way momentum swings in this league, forcing a Game 6 is absolutely within reach. What fascinates me most is how individual player developments can reshape a series, and tonight, two names stand out: Kent Pastrana and Eka Soriano. Pastrana’s recent stint with Gilas Pilipinas Women in the 2025 FIBA Women’s Asia Cup wasn’t just a personal milestone—it was a statement. She’s emerged as one of the country’s top amateurs, and that kind of international experience tends to sharpen a player’s edge when they return to domestic play. I’ve always believed that exposure at higher levels accelerates growth, and in Pastrana’s case, her confidence must be soaring. She logged around 18 minutes per game in the Asia Cup, contributing 9.2 points and 4.5 rebounds—numbers that might not jump off the page, but in high-stakes games, that composure matters. Now, back in a Magnolia jersey, she brings that elevated mindset into a do-or-die situation. It’s the kind of X-factor that can tilt a close game.

Then there’s Eka Soriano, the Season 85 MVP who’s finally back in the pink of health. I’ve watched her struggle through injuries earlier this season, and let me tell you, it was frustrating. A player of her caliber operating at 70% is still good, but at 100%, she’s transformative. In the first four games of this series, she averaged just 11.8 points, well below her usual 18-20 point range, but you could see flashes of her old self in Game 4. She dropped 16 points in 28 minutes, and more importantly, her movement off the ball was crisper. Health isn’t just about being able to play—it’s about exploding past defenders, sustaining intensity on defense, and making those clutch shots when legs are tired. Soriano’s redemption tour is real, and if she strings together a full 40-minute performance tonight, SMB’s defense will have nightmares.

From a tactical standpoint, Magnolia’s chances hinge on controlling the tempo. In Games 3 and 4, they let SMB dictate the pace, resulting in two losses by an average margin of 12 points. But here’s what I’ve noticed: when Magnolia pushes the ball in transition and involves role players early, they’re a different team. Their half-court offense has been stagnant at times, but with Soriano’s playmaking and Pastrana’s off-ball movement, they can exploit SMB’s defensive rotations. I’d love to see them run more pick-and-roll actions with Soriano at the helm—it’s a set that yielded 1.12 points per possession in the regular season, one of the highest in the league. Defensively, they need to tighten up on the perimeter. SMB shot 38% from beyond the arc in the last two games, and that’s simply unsustainable if Magnolia wants to extend the series. Forcing turnovers and converting them into easy baskets could be the key; in their lone win this series, they scored 22 points off turnovers.

Let’s talk about intangibles. Playoff series often swing on momentum and morale, and Magnolia has reasons to feel optimistic. Pastrana’s Gilas call-up didn’t just boost her individually—it lifted the entire squad’s spirit. I’ve spoken to players who say that seeing a teammate succeed internationally creates a ripple effect; it reminds everyone that they belong on bigger stages. Meanwhile, Soriano’s return to form is a narrative that fuels belief. In my experience, teams that embrace these storylines often play with more heart, and heart can overcome talent on any given night. SMB might be the favorites, but favorites feel pressure too. If Magnolia can keep it close heading into the fourth quarter, the weight of expectation might just get to SMB.

Of course, none of this guarantees a Magnolia victory. SMB has been ruthless in closing out games, and their depth is a problem for any opponent. But basketball isn’t played on paper—it’s played with passion, adjustments, and moments of individual brilliance. I’m leaning toward Magnolia tonight, not just because of the talent on display, but because of the timing. Pastrana’s ascent and Soriano’s resurgence align perfectly for a must-win game. If they force a Game 6, the pressure flips entirely to SMB, and in a winner-take-all scenario, anything can happen. So, will Magnolia force a Game 6? My gut says yes, but my head knows it’ll come down to which team wants it more when the final buzzer sounds.